Farmers’ Almanac Winter Weather Forecast: 200 Years of Predictions
Quick Reference: 200 Years of Almanac Winter Forecasts
- Continuous publication since: 1818.
- Forecast formula inputs: sunspot cycles, lunar position, tidal pull, historical patterns.
- Issued: annually in August.
- Self-tracked accuracy: 80-85% over the long run.
- Notable correct calls: the cold winter of 1816 (year without a summer), the Polar Vortex of 2014.
- Notable misses: the Snowmageddon winters were partially missed; the 2011-12 winter was warmer than predicted.
The Farmers’ Almanac has issued a regional winter weather forecast every year since 1818, the same year of publication. Two centuries of continuous data make it the longest-running long-range weather forecast in North America. The formula has stayed remarkably stable, the editorial team has handed it down five generations, and the self-tracked accuracy has been steady at 80-85%. Here is a history of the forecast, the formula behind it, and the most famous correct calls and misses.
How the Formula Works
The Almanac’s long-range formula combines four major inputs that have stayed largely unchanged for 200 years:
- Sunspot cycles: the 11-year solar activity cycle correlates with hemisphere-wide temperature patterns.
- Lunar position: the moon’s gravitational influence affects tides and weakly affects the atmosphere.
- Tidal pull: long-period tidal patterns track multi-year oscillations.
- Historical patterns: 200 years of regional data allow the formula to weight similar past years.
Famous Correct Calls
Some of the Almanac’s most-noted historic successes:
- 1816 ‘year without a summer’: the Almanac’s 1815 prediction noted unusual cold ahead. The Tambora eruption (1815) was the cause, not understood at the time.
- 1888 Great Blizzard: the Almanac’s forecast for spring 1888 called for major storms in the Northeast.
- 2014 Polar Vortex winter: the Almanac forecast a ‘colder than average’ winter for the Eastern US, which proved correct in dramatic fashion.
- 2017-18 cold: the Almanac called a ‘teeth-chatteringly cold’ winter for the Northeast, which delivered.
Famous Misses
No forecast is perfect.
- 2011-12 winter: Almanac called colder than average; the season turned out to be one of the warmest on record for the Eastern US.
- 2009-10 ‘Snowmageddon’ winters: the Almanac forecast ‘normal’ for the Mid-Atlantic; the region saw historic snowfall.
- 1976-77 winter: Almanac under-called the severity of one of the coldest winters in US history.
Frequently Asked Questions
How long has the Almanac forecast winter weather?
Since 1818, the same year of the Almanac’s founding. That makes it the longest-running long-range weather forecast in North America.
What is the formula?
A combination of sunspot cycles, lunar position, tidal pull, and historical pattern weighting. The exact details are not publicly published.
How accurate is the forecast?
The Almanac reports 80-85% accuracy on regional outlooks. Independent reviews put actual accuracy somewhat lower, but still meaningfully above chance.
Where can I see the current winter forecast?
On the Almanac’s long-range weather forecast page. The print edition is published each August.
Caleb Weatherbee
Caleb Weatherbee is the official forecaster for the Farmers' Almanac. His name is actually a pseudonym that has been passed down through generations of Almanac prognosticators and has been used to conceal the true identity of the men and women behind our predictions.
- Caleb Weatherbee
- Caleb Weatherbee
- Caleb Weatherbee
- Caleb Weatherbee
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