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Our 2014 Tornado Season Forecast!

Our 2014 Tornado Season Forecast!

Spring arrives this week, at least according to astronomy, if not meteorology. While springtime means longer days, more sunlight, and warmer weather, the season also means the height of tornado season.

While tornadoes can occur at any time of the year, tornado season’s traditional period of peak activity is from March through early July. Each year, an average of 1,200 tornadoes touch down in the United States, and the vast majority form in the spring and early summer. Similarly, while tornadoes can touch down just about anywhere in North America, they are most likely to occur in the area known as “Tornado Alley,” which runs roughly through the Central Plains from Texas to Nebraska. Within that area, Texas has the highest number of tornadoes, with an average of 124 each year.

On average, tornadoes kill about 70 Americans each year, and injure another 1,500. By that measure, last year’s tornado season was somewhat mild, with 811 confirmed tornadoes in the U.S. and 55 fatalities, a slight decrease from the previous year.

The opening months of 2014 have brought 46 confirmed tornadoes in the U.S. So far, all of those have been minor – E2 and lower – with no reported fatalities.

In the 2014 Farmers’ Almanac, we predicted that “tornado alley,” in the nation’s midsection, would see an active year, with a dangerous flare-up in April and again in June.

In particular, watch for a strong tornado threat tornado Central and Southern Texas, as well as Louisiana, in the opening days of April. Ongoing stormy weather throughout the month will mean continued risk.

Another heavy storm system could bring tornado activity in the opening week of May, as could a few locally strong thunderstorms in Oklahoma and Texas at the end of the month.

June will bring even more thunderstorms with the potential for tornadoes, particularly near the official start of summer on the 21st.

For a more detailed look at what’s in store for you region, visit our long range forecast.

25 Responses

  1. Oh boy lot of tornados in ohio in May and june

    by Ian on Jun 11, 2014 at 7:18 am

  2. Is a tornado alley change yet?

    by Ian on Jun 11, 2014 at 7:15 am

  3. We get a couple per year here in SE Michigan, seems like we are getting more than we used to as of late

    by Ed Akin on Apr 28, 2014 at 10:21 pm

  4. wow-is that photo for real, or is it a painting or photoshop deal?
    Tornados are the most fascinating weather phenomenon to me. And that they happen everywhere kind of freaks me out!

    by Susan Wood on Apr 26, 2014 at 3:27 pm

  5. How does Iowa fare in this mix?

    by Gabriele on Apr 26, 2014 at 1:43 pm

  6. Where is Kentucky on your map? Which area should I check? I live in Bowling Green KY. about 50 miles north of Nashville, you know, home of the sinkhole that eats corvettes . . . o.O

    by Linda on Apr 26, 2014 at 1:36 pm

  7. I am predicting that tornado season is going to spike up drastically in May because that is the time when a real steady stream of warm weather will come. Due to the cold winter we had, tornado season will pretty much be a slow start. The air masses are pretty warm now, but they are being punctuated. They will most likely not be punctuated in May. There will be enough warm air coming in to spur up tornado season. As of today, April 22, 2014, there have been only 110 tornadoes reported by the National Weather Service. Soon, that will pretty much change.

    by Peter Kane on Apr 22, 2014 at 12:42 pm

  8. Well I live in the heart of it all….Moore,OK and was in the f-5 last year…I am terrified now and really could use a quiet spring here. My poor hometown needs a break…

    by had1424 on Apr 19, 2014 at 10:29 pm

  9. all of ontario is in a little tornado valley which can be more bad here if ontario has right conditions for tornado outbreak but May is a scrutiny also june and july too we have to see when it comes because sgl had alot of snow last winter if the ingredients comes together wtch out could be deadly the weather.

    by tornadoes2 on Apr 12, 2014 at 3:06 pm

  10. I too would like to see more in my state Missouri. From KC to ST. LOUIS.
    Not only from west to east but North to south!!!

    by ernie White on Mar 23, 2014 at 3:42 pm

  11. “”””FORGET””””” Mother Nature. “GOD” Jesus is in control. Does anyone ever ”WONDER” WHY ????? There is NOT better WATER & FLOOD CONTROL. ???
    With all the scores of people out of work and collecting foodstamps & welfare. PUT people
    to work ”’HELPING”” PEOPLE live better ”’LIVES””’ KEEP BIG—”’GOVT””OUT OF
    STATES WORK. PEOPLE HELPING PEOPLE IS WHAT IT TAKES….Enough said…

    by DENNIS on Mar 20, 2014 at 12:05 am

  12. We can use the rain & I do like thunderstorms, but I’m gonna pray for NO TORNADOS! I’ve been terrified of them since I was little.

    by Alicia T. on Mar 19, 2014 at 9:48 pm

  13. After the winter we’ve had, let’s pray for a quiet and peaceful Spring and Summer. No tornadoes or hurricanes, please.

    by Jamys on Mar 19, 2014 at 9:42 pm

  14. Please no tornado’s in Cancun Mexico in April. Going there for anniversary. smh…

    by David on Mar 19, 2014 at 2:46 pm

  15. What about Michigan?

    by Kristel Lynn on Mar 19, 2014 at 2:31 pm

  16. What about northern Illinois? We get a lot in Belvedere and surrounding areas.

    by Jennifer on Mar 19, 2014 at 2:10 pm

  17. How about springfield. Mo. Up the int. 44 area. (St. Louis mo.)

    by paul l. williams on Mar 19, 2014 at 1:45 pm

  18. We get some quite frequently in Indiana too.

    by Dwayne Brindley on Mar 19, 2014 at 1:03 pm

  19. You obviously have never heard of “Dixie Alley” in the deep south. We here in AL are part of it. Have been in quite a few here over the past decades.

    by Deborah cobern on Mar 19, 2014 at 12:20 pm

  20. Don’t forget Wyoming and Colorado too! The alley doesn’t end in Nebraska anymore, unfortunately.

    by Sandi S on Mar 19, 2014 at 10:32 am

  21. You wanna be safe during tornando season you need a storm shelter. Good friend of mine builds the best shelters. Visit their website @WWW.sheltersonline.com or call toll free 1-877-353-8663 Southern Illinois Storm Shelters.

    by Dawn Brown on Mar 19, 2014 at 10:03 am

  22. does the active tornado season include Kansas city Missouri area?

    by dianne neth on Mar 19, 2014 at 9:29 am

  23. what about the Kansas city Missouri area?

    by dianne neth on Mar 19, 2014 at 9:27 am

  24. Please take it back about tornadoes in Central and Southern Texas. Please. I have wind phobia. Tornadoes just bring me over the edge.

    by scarlette on Mar 19, 2014 at 9:23 am

  25. What about Canada?

    by Jean on Mar 19, 2014 at 9:21 am

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