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Farmers' Almanac

2011 Hurricane Season Forecast

2011 Hurricane Season Forecast

Hurricane season is almost here! The season for tropical storms spans from June 1 through November 30, though activity tends to increase beginning in mid-August, and typically peaks on or around Sept. 10.

Last year’s hurricane season was an extremely active one, with 19 named storms, more than any year since 2005 (the year Hurricanes Katrina and Rita hit). The average year sees around 11 tropical storms, and six hurricanes.

This year, we’re predicting another above average season, beginning with a tropical disturbance in New England during the opening days of August. Things will really get going in late August, though. We’re calling for hurricane threats over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic States at the end of August and beginning of September, and a less severe threat later that same week over Texas and Louisiana. We’re expecting another tropical storm to strike Southeastern states in mid-to-late September, making the heart of the season a bit longer than normal.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is also predicting a very active year, with as many as 18 storms for the coming season, including 10 hurricanes.

Why Name Hurricanes?

The tradition of weather forecasters giving every tropical storm and hurricane a name began in 1953. Until 1979, those names were exclusively female. Now, we use a six set lists that alternate between male and female names, listed alphabetically and in chronological order starting with A and omitting Q and U, X, Y, and Z. If more than 21 names are required during a season, NOAA dips into the Greek alphabet as it did a couple years ago. Every six years, the names cycle back around and get reused. If a hurricane does tremendous damage (i.e. Andrew, Camille, Katrina), the name is retired and replaced by a different name beginning with the same letter.

Here is the list for 2011:
Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harvey, Irene, Jose, Katia, Lee, Maria, Nate, Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean, Tammy, Vince, Whitney.

To see more detailed predictions for your region, be sure to check our long range forecast.

12 comments

1 John Walker { 09.03.11 at 9:03 pm }

What I can not help but ask! Is anyone home? Why blame God for misfortune? Why blame global warming which is questionable at best? (read the NOAA temps add them all together and divide by the number of stations, amazing how simple math works) Lets for the just plain sense reason speak truthfully, I do believe that the weather is changing. however it has been changing since the beginning of time. If ya don’t believe it remember the ice ages you have studied about and the temprate times from the dinosaurs, Please people stop wasting energy blaming God and man. Focus on the really important thing being prepared.No matter where you live you are in range of some sort of natural disaster, learn the dangers prepare for the dangers and teach your children and grandchildren, then maybe you will be setting on the bank chewing granola and sipping water instead of standing in a hospital or worse identifing someone you care about.

2 jadedmage { 08.26.11 at 11:39 am }

anyone who thinks this is gods doing is an idiot, end of times my rear end, its called “climate change” or “global warming” Believe me its going to get worst next year when the planets start to aline towards the end of the year (seriously, look it up). You think earthquakes and hurricanes in the east are bad now? You have seen nothing yet. Just remember this, when they tell you to evacuate, do it, dont wait, pack up your valuables and leave. You can always rebuild a house, but you cant bring people and pets back to life.

3 Carolyn Egan { 06.06.11 at 6:18 pm }

Another free hurricane report is found on my weathersage.com website through the end of summer. The rest of the free report will be in the fall season report. It is a busy season with many over in the Pacific in MX and the Baja. A Florida group invited me back for another year and look at the entire 26 week season.

4 Cajunmichael { 06.04.11 at 10:10 am }

Yes Maggie the weather is becoming extreme, we are in the birth pains of the end times. Many things are shifting, all the tornado producing thunderheads we normally get in south Louisiana went way north in Missouri and Ohio. The Mississippi, Atchafala, Ouchita and Red Rivers flooding and we haven’t had an inch of rain total since the end of February
@ Connie Tracking maps are available at most any bank, or TV Radio station in Louisiana, are you can track them here also -> http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

5 Jerry Sonnier { 06.02.11 at 4:14 pm }

.Connie: We have a local tv station KLFY TV. COM in Lafayette La. that Iam pretty sure that they have paper HURRICANE MAPS available if you get in touch with them that they would mail you one free

6 Amy { 06.02.11 at 3:25 am }

Well said Joyce, His Name deserves praise.

Albuquerque has been getting weird weather lately…

7 Joyce { 06.01.11 at 10:08 pm }

Thankfully, we don’t have Hurricanes in Colorado, but are known for Avalanches, Blizzards and Tornado’s. Though I have experienced them while living in the South on the East Coast, and they are terrifying. The last one for me was “Hurricane Hugo” in 1989, and our home suffered $30,000 worth of damage, and our lives were spared. So, getting prepared is a great idea, and prayers that you all are safe and blessed through this season. I feel no state now days is safe.. Our God is angry and we can all see it. Be blessed…

8 Maranatha_Mark { 06.01.11 at 5:43 pm }

Connie, Intellicast offers pretty descent hurricane tracking maps. http://www.intellicast.com, click on the Hurricane link at the top of the page.

9 Maranatha_Mark { 06.01.11 at 5:41 pm }

We had a lot of named storms last year, but NO major Hurricanes made land fall in the U.S. In fact I don’t remember any Cat 2 or above storms making land fall. Can some one please refresh my memory concerning this. He in West KY we had a very bad drought, which when large hurricanes come ashore, especially in the Gulf coast area, we usually get the remnants of the system in the form of rain. I do remember some tropical storms making land fall, but nothing with enough energy to make it past the heart of the Southern states. We really haven’t had any Cat 3 storms or more since 2005, make landfall, for which I am greatful! But we have had forecast of swarms of terrible hurricane seasons since 2005, all have fallen way short. I am just concerned about the “Cry Wolf” syndrome from all these dire predictions that never come to fruition.

10 Maggie { 06.01.11 at 12:24 pm }

It seems all weather has been “extreme” lately. I do not look forward to watching hurricanes move in. My Wish is that all are kept safe from harm.

11 Jerry Sonnier { 06.01.11 at 11:12 am }

Thanks for putting this info out. I live in south central louisiana and we like to keep up with any info on hurricane’s. It is very essential that we do so for our protection. That is something that we do not take litely.

12 connie wilson { 06.01.11 at 10:23 am }

With hurricane season here, it would be nice if a tracking map was available. I love to keep track of the names and the path each hurricane.

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